The UK is facing a series of challenges that are fuelling discontent among workers, consumers and citizens. The cost of living crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic, the Brexit aftermath, the climate emergency and the social care crisis are some of the factors that are putting pressure on the economy, the public services and the political system.
In this blog post, I will explore what the discontent in the UK might look like in 2024, based on current trends and historical comparisons. I will also suggest some possible ways to address the discontent and restore trust and confidence in democracy.
The winter of discontent revisited?
Some commentators have drawn parallels between the current situation and the winter of discontent of 1978-79, when widespread strikes by public sector workers brought down the Labour government and paved the way for Margaret Thatcher’s election victory. The winter of discontent was triggered by high inflation, low wages, cuts to public spending and a breakdown of social dialogue between unions, employers and the government.
There are some similarities between then and now. Inflation has reached a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022, driven by soaring energy prices, supply chain disruptions and labour shortages. Wages have not kept up with inflation, especially for low-paid workers in sectors such as health, education, transport and hospitality. Public spending has been squeezed by years of austerity and the impact of Covid-19. And unions have become more militant and assertive, launching strikes and protests across various industries and services.
However, there are also important differences that make a direct comparison misleading. First, the level of union membership and influence is much lower today than it was in the late 1970s. Only about 23% of workers belong to a union, compared to more than 50% in 1979. And unions face more legal restrictions and public scrutiny than they did four decades ago. Second, the political landscape is more fragmented and polarised today than it was then. The Labour party is divided between its left-wing and centrist factions, while the Conservative party is split between its pro-Brexit and pro-business wings. The rise of nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, as well as smaller parties such as the Greens and the Liberal Democrats, has also reduced the dominance of the two main parties. Third, the social and cultural context is more diverse and complex today than it was then. Issues such as immigration, identity, race, gender and sexuality have become more salient and contentious in recent years, creating new sources of conflict and solidarity among different groups.
Therefore, while there is a risk of a repeat of the winter of discontent in terms of industrial unrest and political instability, it is unlikely to be exactly the same or have the same consequences as it did in 1979.
The summer of discontent ahead?
A more plausible scenario is that the discontent in the UK will not be confined to a single season or sector, but will spread across different domains and dimensions over time. This could lead to what some have called a summer of discontent – not necessarily in terms of weather or calendar, but in terms of mood and intensity.
A summer of discontent could manifest itself in various ways, such as:
– A surge in consumer dissatisfaction and frustration over rising prices, shortages of goods and services, poor quality standards and lack of choice.
– A wave of social unrest and civil disobedience over issues such as climate change, inequality, racism, sexism and human rights.
– A decline in trust and confidence in public institutions and authorities over their handling of Covid-19, Brexit, social care and other policy challenges.
– A growth in populism and extremism among political parties and movements that exploit people’s grievances and offer simplistic solutions.
– A breakdown in social cohesion and solidarity among different communities and groups that feel alienated or threatened by each other.
These manifestations of discontent could interact with each other and create a vicious cycle of anger, resentment
